An upper level low offshore will bring a series of storms to Ventura County beginning late Sunday. Rainfall is expected to increase Sunday night, with the heaviest impacts anticipated Monday between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM. Gusty winds will accompany the system, with the potential for gusts approaching 60 mph. Intermittent precipitation will continue through Thursday, though additional rainfall totals are expected to remain relatively light after Monday’s primary storm. High surf is also expected along the Ventura County coastline, with wave heights generally ranging from 6 to 10 feet. Sets near the Ventura Harbor could reach up to 15 feet.

The National Weather Service has issued multiple watches and advisories. The latest information can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/lox/

Estimated Rainfall Rates & Totals

• .50″-.75″/hour rates will be common
• 1″/hour rates are possible if a thunderstorm develops over an area  
• 2″-4″ of rain can be expected near the coast and valleys
• 4″-8″ in the foothills and mountains.
• Peak rainfall intensities are generally expected to remain below USGS debris flow thresholds for the Mountain Fire burn area, though South Mountain could approach threshold levels if higher rates develop. As previously mentioned, there is a low chance debris flow thresholds could be reached if a thunderstorm develops of an area. 

Rivers, Creeks & Lakes

• The heaviest rain Monday morning is expected to produce the highest flows on the Ventura River and Sespe Creek, though levels are forecast to remain below Monitor stage. Additional showers are expected Tuesday through early Thursday. While rainfall rates should be lower, saturated conditions may increase runoff in urban channels and Calleguas Creek. Snow levels will lower midweek and may impact Lockwood Valley, Highway 33, and the Grapevine.
• Lake Casitas is nearing the spillway and may begin spilling later Monday. Lake Piru remains several feet below its spillway, and dam spilling is not expected. It is normal for reservoirs to spill when they reach capacity and there are engineered systems in place to direct flows to the creeks below. 

Evacuation Orders, Warnings & Advisories

• No evacuation orders or warnings have been issued at this time. Public safety personnel will continue to monitor the developing forecast for any changes and will evaluate the need for evacuations as conditions warrant. Due to the evolving weather conditions, residents are encouraged to remain aware of their surroundings and monitor official information sources. Conditions can change rapidly, particularly in areas prone to flooding or debris flows. If you feel unsafe at any time, do not wait for an official notice. Leave the area immediately and seek higher ground or a safe location.
• La Conchita remains under a year-round advisory due to ongoing geological hazards. For more information, click here.