An upper-level low offshore will bring a series of storms to Ventura County beginning late Sunday. Rain is expected to increase Sunday night, with the heaviest impacts Monday morning through mid-day. A developing low-level jet may enhance rainfall rates, though the exact location of the heaviest band remains uncertain.

Rainfall Estimates

• 1.5 to 3 inches across coastal and valley areas, including the Mountain Fire burn area
• 2.5 to 5 inches in the foothills and mountains.
• Peak rainfall intensities are expected to remain below USGS debris flow thresholds for the Mountain Fire burn area, though South Mountain could approach threshold levels if higher rates develop.

Rivers, Creeks & Lakes

• The heaviest rain Monday morning is expected to produce the highest flows on the Ventura River and Sespe Creek, though levels are forecast to remain below Monitor stage. Additional showers are expected Tuesday through early Thursday. While rainfall rates should be lower, saturated conditions may increase runoff in urban channels and Calleguas Creek. Snow levels will lower midweek and may impact Lockwood Valley, Highway 33, and the Grapevine.
• Lake Casitas is nearing the spillway and may begin spilling later Monday. Lake Piru remains several feet below its spillway, and dam spilling is not expected. It is normal for reservoirs to spill when they reach capacity and there are engineered systems in place to direct flows to the creeks below. 

Evacuation Orders, Warnings & Advisories

• No evacuation orders or warnings have been issued at this time. Public safety personnel will continue to monitor the developing forecast for any changes and will evaluate the need for evacuations as conditions warrant. Due to the evolving weather conditions, residents are encouraged to remain aware of their surroundings and monitor official information sources. Conditions can change rapidly, particularly in areas prone to flooding or debris flows. If you feel unsafe at any time, do not wait for an official notice. Leave the area immediately and seek higher ground or a safe location.
• La Conchita remains under a year-round advisory due to ongoing geological hazards. For more information, click here.